Description

This analysis provides a forecast of OM prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-02-02 2.334799 3.162589 4.323541 6.124309 8.950318e+00 1.340691e+01 21.396314
2025-02-09 1.713811 2.694729 4.373676 7.691511 1.475643e+01 3.111182e+01 80.490772
2025-02-16 1.235713 2.180399 4.079099 8.718654 2.201770e+01 6.939196e+01 366.701032
2025-02-23 0.865867 1.666221 3.489370 8.810102 2.888188e+01 1.427031e+02 2246.974093
2025-03-02 0.611222 1.257336 2.882494 8.388180 3.512809e+01 2.864711e+02 31242.051585
2025-03-09 0.485612 1.073884 2.726445 9.403872 5.451881e+01 1.022350e+03 NaN
2025-03-16 0.389535 0.916222 2.546341 10.308604 8.438788e+01 5.336724e+03 NaN
2025-03-23 0.324145 0.808734 2.458293 11.779169 1.456829e+02 1.034232e+05 NaN
2025-03-30 0.271619 0.713252 2.349419 13.214604 2.567845e+02 1.870866e+10 NaN
2025-04-06 0.218159 0.591001 2.046916 12.786772 3.473285e+02 NaN NaN
2025-04-13 0.175047 0.484845 1.741345 11.764860 4.206463e+02 NaN NaN
2025-04-20 0.151399 0.434461 1.655272 12.762744 7.686604e+02 NaN NaN
2025-04-27 0.134705 0.403976 1.659632 15.285989 2.165951e+03 NaN NaN
2025-05-04 0.122151 0.383358 1.706048 19.209438 1.000244e+04 NaN NaN
2025-05-11 0.107334 0.347551 1.636443 21.409348 4.486701e+04 NaN NaN
2025-05-18 0.091534 0.301415 1.463650 20.852334 1.302702e+05 NaN NaN
2025-05-25 0.077423 0.257343 1.271460 19.021857 2.636079e+05 NaN NaN
2025-06-01 0.069760 0.237978 1.234400 21.277486 1.652511e+07 NaN NaN
2025-06-08 0.062825 0.219150 1.185972 23.253437 NaN NaN NaN
2025-06-15 0.057610 0.206097 1.171169 26.816978 NaN NaN NaN
2025-06-22 0.052806 0.193135 1.146343 30.338486 NaN NaN NaN
2025-06-29 0.046768 0.172240 1.036470 28.753269 NaN NaN NaN
2025-07-06 0.041144 0.151781 0.916390 25.715191 NaN NaN NaN